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5 Takeaways on France’s Regional Elections

The National Front continues to rise, the establishment is in big trouble.

National Front supporters in Provence.,

The far-right National Front’s victory in the first round of French regional elections on Sunday will have an impact far beyond the composition of local governments and the shock it will have sent through the French political establishment.

In every single European capital, politicians will ponder the results and wonder how an anti-immigration, anti-European movement could become France’s first political party. They will also worry about what it means for Europe in a time of crisis — economic and existential.

The National Front may take over two, three or even more French regions after a second round of voting on December 13, but for many, the damage has been done.

1. Le Pen’s mainstream push pays off

Marine Le Pen, the National Front’s current leader and daughter of the party’s founder Jean-Marie, is reaping the rewards for her strategy of pulling the party away from the far-right fringes, ridding it of its extremist stigma, and courting the disenfranchised working class she says is being abandoned by the mainstream political parties of both right and left.

She stands a good chance of winning and then running the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region, an area more populous than 12 EU countries. Her personal victory, winning more than 40 percent of the popular vote in an industrial area that was historically a stronghold of the Communist and Socialist parties, shows how many voters have drifted away from the ruling left, after seven years of economic crisis.

Le Pen’s niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, who is seen as more conservative than her aunt, notably on social issues, did even better in the Provence region. Other leading candidates also did better than expected, showing that the party has developed a grassroots following far beyond mere adhesion to Marine Le Pen herself.

2. Left-right may have to join forces to stop Le Pen

The Socialist party decided late Sunday to withdraw its candidates from the second round of voting in regions where they had finished third in the first round. It also called on voters to back conservative candidates in a week’s time in order to prevent the National Front from winning.

That is particularly the case in the North, in Provence and in Alsace, where Le Pen’s close aide and a party vice president, Florian Philippot, came in first with 35 percent of the vote.

The National Front could still be defeated in the second round if all or most Socialist voters decide to back the center-right. It would, however, allow Le Pen to denounce, as she has long been doing, the mainstream parties for colluding to keep her out of power.

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By pulling its candidates in the name of what has been dubbed a “Republican Front” against Le Pen, the Socialists stand in stark contrast to Nicolas Sarkozy, the conservative opposition leader. Earlier Sunday, Sarkozy rejected such tactics and said he didn’t want his Les Républicain party’s candidates to withdraw, or join forces with their Socialist rivals.

As soon as the second round is over on December 13, expect the blame game to begin on who is responsible for handing over regions to the Le Pens.

3. Hollande and Sarkozy are both losers

President François Hollande enjoyed a boost in popularity in the wake of the November 13 Paris attacks. But it mattered little on Sunday.

The new emphasis on security questions, with calls for a tougher stand on migrants and refugees, leaves Hollande exactly where he was before: an unpopular president who seems unable to find ways to address high unemployment — which is now, for the first time, above the eurozone average.

The defeat is also a personal one for Hollande, who when in opposition five years ago led the Socialist party to a resounding victory in local elections, with his party taking over all but one of the country’s then 21 regions.

The French leader had remained uncharacteristically silent in recent weeks and hadn’t campaigned at all, preferring to stick to the “presidential” posture and tend to France’s international problems — especially the fight against ISIL. It had little effect.

However, the strong showing of his popular Defense Minister Jean Yves le Drian in the Brittany region shows that members of the government seen as good at their job can still attract voters.

But Hollande’s loss is not a win for his long-time rival Sarkozy. The former president was also one of the day’s losers.

In many regions, long-time mainstream conservative voters deserted to Le Pen. That was the case in Provence, where Sarkozy ally Christian Estrosi pulled less than 25 percent of the vote against Maréchal-Le Pen’s 42 percent.

Sarkozy’s strategy of tough talking in a bid  to compete with the National Front’s rhetoric didn’t convince many voters.

4. Eyes on the 2017 prize

With 18 months to go before presidential elections, the result of Sunday’s vote will be scrutinized to assess the chances of potential candidates. But even if France has become a three-party country, it’s clear that a lot could happen before May 2017.

The preliminary results on Sunday night showed that parties from the left, including the Socialists and their fractious allies such as the Greens, received around 35 percent of the vote. The mainstream conservatives — Les Républicains and others — won between 30 and 32 percent, and the Front National won between 29 and 31 percent.

Socialist leaders began to spin that the left is still France’s main political movement. That may show they were right to push for joint candidates in the regional elections — but illustrates their failure in convincing other parties to join them.

The secret hope of both Socialists and conservatives is that the National Front fails at what it has never done before: wield executive power in a large region.

The party has no experience of management, and voters will get a chance to see them raise taxes, manage budgets, sit on school boards and interact with other local and regional governments.

Seeing the National Front at work, the other parties hope, will open the eyes of voters.

5. What happens in France doesn’t stay in France

Marine Le Pen refrained from any mention of Europe or the ills she believes it brings on France in her victory speech on Sunday night. That may be the surest sign yet that she has already started her presidential campaign. But her underlings didn’t show the same restraint, and denounced Europe, the market economy and a “U.S. influenced foreign policy” as soon as the results were in.

It’s easy to see how the National Front’s self-proclaimed status as the country’s main party will have an impact on the general debate about Europe — on topics such as the refugee crisis, the country’s economic problems or the role of Germany in the EU, to name but a few.

Sarkozy’s speeches already show the influence of the National Front. He has been picking up ideas straight from his far-right competitor: a tough on crime, tough on immigration line, complete with the end of Schengen and the emphasis on national powers as opposed to pan-EU ones.

Whether it influences Hollande’s rhetoric and policies remains to be seen. The most likely scenario is that any reform agenda will be put on ice to avoid controversy. Hollande will then have to rely on foreign policy, where there are few votes to be gained, and hope that an economic recovery might curb unemployment before the presidential campaign starts in earnest.

Meanwhile, France’s European partners would be forgiven for thinking that 18 months is a short time to turn around such a situation.