https://portside.org/2026-11-04/trump-trap-key-take-aways-tuesdays-election

Trumpty-Dumpty had a great fall.

He landed on the Republican Party and crushed it.  It isn’t clear how, or if, the GOP can put itself back together again. Meanwhile, the Democrats scored a huge landslide.

We won’t know just how big a wipeout it was until all the votes are counted. Democrats flipped  seven Republican-held Senate seats, at least two dozen House districts, five governorships, and at least 12 state legislative chambers.  Republicans didn’t flip a single Democratic-held Senate, House, or gubernatorial seats. States that hasn’t elected a Democratic Senate or governor in decades did so on Tuesday.

The Democrats entered this election with 47 Senate seats. They will now have at least 54 seats in the Senate, making them Fetterman-proof. If Democrats win one or both tight races in Mississippi and Alaska that are now too close to call, they will have 55 or 56 Senate seats.

NBC News projects that the Democrats could hold as many as 259 House seats, up from 214 before the election. That means, among other things, that Jamie Raskin will be chair of the House Judiciary Committee.

What happened?  The election was a shattering rebuke to Trump and to the Congressional Republicans, almost all of whom supported him. When all the results are in, the big blue wave will likely reveal a big gap in enthusiasm and turnout between Democrats and Republicans. Prior to Election Day, the University of Florida Election Lab reported that over 43 million early ballots had already been cast, which outpaced the early voting tracking from the same point in the 2020 and 2018 elections.  In addition, some previously Republican voters switched to Republicans. .

The outcome weakens Trump, who is now the lamest of ducks. The results of this election  might give Trump’s allies among the corporate class and the billionaire oligarchy pause that all the money they invested in Republican candidates didn’t yield much of a return. Whether that changes their political calculations moving forward remains to be seen.  They might double-down and try to strengthen their hands, in part by investing in better candidates, or they could recognize that the Democratic landslide was not only an anti-Trump movement but a signal that Americans are angry at corporate America’s greed and irresponsible practices that have made their lives harder.   Most victorious Democrats ran on three core issues: (1) “affordability” (cost of health care, housing, food, and gas), (2) the ongoing war in Iraq, and (3) Trump’s corruption. The Democrats can continue to excoriate Trump, but they will also need to give Americans a positive policy agenda if they want to maintain their electoral dominance in 2028.

TRUMP’S GERRYMANDERING SCHEME BACKFIRED, AS DEMOCRATS FLIPPED THE HOUSE

Dems flipped many Republican Congressional districts and states that Trump won by double-digits in 2024. One example to celebrate: MAGA queen Lauren Boebert lost her  seat in the House from Colorado.

Trump insisted that Republican state redraw their Congressional maps to guarantee that the GOP to keep or expand their majority in the House. It didn’t work

In Ron DeSantis' Florida, for example, the Republicans redrew the lines to make an additional four Congressional seats safe for Republicans. Instead, Democrats  -- Kathy Castor in the 14th Congressional District,  Pia Dandiya in the 22nd Congressional District,  Jared Moskowitz in the 25th Congressional District, and Darren Soto in the 9th Congressional District -- won all four of them.

Last year, Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map before the midterms to make six districts safer for Republicans. Democrats won at least five of those seats.

North Carolina’s gerrymandering also backfired, thanks to high Democratic turnout. Republicans redrew districts to solidify and expand their 10 to 4 margin among the state’s Congressional delegation. Instead, as a result of Tuesday’s election, Democrats will have a 10 to 4 majority. Democratic farmer Jamie Ager beat State Rep. Jennifer Balkcom in CD-11. In CD-6, Democrat Cyril Jefferson defeated Rep. Addison McDowell with 51% of the vote. In CD-13, Democrat Paul Barringer beat U.S. Rep. Brad Knott. In CD-14, Democrat Lakesha Womack earned 51% of the vote in CD-14 against U.S. Rep. Tim Moore. The Republicans particularly targeted Rep. Don Davis (CD-1), redrawing his district to make sure he lost his re-election batter. He  won, 50-47%. In CD-5, Democrat Chuck Hubbard is ahead of longtime Republican incumbent Virginia Foxx, a MAGA reactionary, by about 100 votes with 95% of votes counted.

Perhaps the most embarrassing example took place in North Carolina CD-9. Two years ago, Trump carried that district by 57-41%. Republican Congressman Richard Hudson was re-elected to that district seat in 2024 with 56% of the vote. Hudson is chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, responsible for recruiting candidates. He just lost his seat. Democrat Richard Ojeda beat him 51-49%.

FLIPPING THE SENATE

Republicans did not flip even one Democratic Senate seat. In contrast, Democrats flipped

• Iowa: Josh Turek defeated Rep. Ashley Hinson.

• North Carolina: Roy Cooper won an open seat

• South Carolina: Annie Andrews defeated incumbent Darline Graham.

• Texas: James Talarico beat Ken Paxton.

• Kansas: Adam Hamilton beat incumbent Roger Marshall to become the state's first Democratic senator since 1932.

• Ohio: Sherrod Brown beat incumbent John Husted

• Maine: Troy Jackson beat incumbent Susan Collins

Abdul El-Sayed kept Michigan’s Senate seat in Democratic hands.

Remarkably, in Mississippi, with 96% of the votes counted, Democrat Scott Colom was leading incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith by about 43 votes. Had the Democrats invested more money in Colom’s campaign, he would certainly have won by a higher margin.

In Alaska, Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sulllivan was leading Democrat Mary Pertola 48.5 – 47.7% with 75% of the votes counted.

Perhaps most remarkable, Democrat Angie Nixon, a DSA member, came within a slim margin (48-51%) of winning the Senate seat in Florida.

In New Hampshire, Chris Pappas kept the Senate seat in Democratic hands, beating John Sununu 57-41%. Pappas will be the first openly gay male Senator.

DEMOCRATS WON MORE GOVERNORSHIPS

Before tonight, there were 24 Democratic governors and 26 Republican governors. Democrats have flipped at least four seats, shifting the balance to 28 Democrats and 22 Republicans:

• Texas: Gina Hinojosa
• Ohio: Amy Acton defeated the disgusting Vivek Ramaswamy
• Iowa: Rob Sand
• Georgia: Keisha Lance Bottoms is now the country’s first black woman governor
• Alaska: Jonathan S. Kreiss-Tomkins won with 49% of the vote; three Republicans split the rest.

THE SOUTH ROSE AGAIN

After Congress passed and President Lydon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, LBJ reportedly said, "We may have lost the South for a generation.”  Before that, the Confederate states were the “solid South” for segregationist Democrats.

It’s taken more than a generation, but now it seems that much of the South is shifting back into the Democratic fold. Georgia now has two Democratic Senators – a Jew (Jon Ossoff, who just won re-election) and an African American (Raphael Warnock) – and a Democrat governor (Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Black woman).  South Carolina and North Carolina also elected Democrats to the Senate.

Democrats won statewide races in Texas for U.S. Senate (Talarico) and Governor (Hinojosa) as well as Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Agricultural Commissioner (the first Democrat since Jim Hightower), Land Commissioner, Comptroller, and Railroad Commission. Democrats are also likely to gain control of the Texas state House.  It is possible that the Democrats could win both state legislative chambers, giving them a trifecta. Elon Musk’s money, and his decision to move the headquarters of Tesla, SpaceX and X to Texas – didn’t move many voters.

It is still possible that a Black Democrat, Scott Colom, will win the Mississippi Senate race. The last time Mississippi voters elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was in 1982, when long-serving John Stennis – an ardent segregationist – won his final term before retiring. Similarly, the fact that Angie Nixon won 48% of the vote to represent Florida in the U.S. Senate is mind-boggling. She lost her race to complete Marco Rubio’s term, but that seat will be up again and Nixon will now be the frontrunner for the Democrats’ nomination. Hopefully by then the DNC will understand that a Black female DSA member might be able to flip that Senate seat and will invest in her campaign.

In Louisiana, Black farmer Jamie Davis, a Democratic, lost his race for the Senate by a slim 49.1% to 509% margin.

If we see a pattern here, it’s that the national Democrats failed to adequately invest in three Senate races led by Black candidates. If the party wants to expand its reach in the South, that will have to change.

DEMOCRATS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN STATE LEGISLATURES

The super-blue wave also landed in state legislatures. Republicans have held a majority of state legislatures since 2010, but that may now be changing. The Democrats flipped 12 chambers (state Senates or state Houses), winning control of the most chambers since 2008. The Democrats now control of more than half the nation’s state legislative bodies.

For example, Wisconsin Democrats now have a trifecta with the Governor, state Senate, and state House – the first time since 2010.

Democrats will likely control the Arizona legislature for the first time in 60 years. Democrats could also take control of the Texas House for the first time in over 20 years. Democrats flipped several state House seats in North Carolina to give them control of the lower chamber for the first time since 2010.

In Indiana, Democrats broke the House GOP’s supermajority on Tuesday night.

TRUMP WAS HIS OWN WORST ENEMY

Trump used his influence to promote MAGA candidates in key races because they supported him. But quite a few of them were weak candidates who lost on Tuesday. In Texas, Trump helped Ken Paxton defeat incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn out of personal pique. Paxton won the nomination, but Democrat Talirico beat him by in a landslide.  In South Carolina, as red as a state can be, Trump backed the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, in the GOP primary. Thanks to Trump, she won, but she turned out to be a terrible candidate. She lost the Senate seat to Democrat Annie Andrews. There are other examples of Trump’s ego-driven miscalculations.

Trump’s low favorability ratings – his corruption, his money grabbing, his tariffs, his war in Iran,  his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, his sexual abuses, and his misuse of ICE stormtroopers to intimidate immigrants and terrorize cities  -  certainly are mostly responsible for the Democratic landslide, but Trump made many other errors that undermined Republican candidates. His rallies on behalf of GOP candidates might have inspired the MAGA crowds, but the clips broadcast on TV and social media revealed a president who was totally out of control, clearly suffering from an early stage of dementia, and talking more about himself than about the candidates he was there to help.

His recent megalomaniac outbursts about the Kennedy Center, the Arch, and the White House ballroom revealed that he wasn’t really interested in addressing the economic hardships facing Americans.

Perhaps most telling was his final closing-argument event before Election Day, which he used to showcase the newly reopened $14 million renovation of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in DC. He spent most of that speech detailing the plumbing and landscaping fixes and joked about renaming the landmark. Trumped drowned GOP hopes in that pool. He looked like a fool, making it easy for former President Obama to mock him with a joke that Trump's gold-heavy White House renovations made the building look like "Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory."

Trump has become so toxic that even Vice President JD Vance quickly distanced himself from his boss. Vance clearly wants to run for president in 2028 and realizes that being Trump’s heir apparent is not a path to the White House. But he also needs Trump’s MAGA base to win the GOP nomination. If anyone is caught in the Trump trap, it is Vance. The day after the elections, Vance said that the Democrats’ victories was due to the war in Iran, putting him in Trump’s crosshairs. It won’t be long before Trump tries to get his revenge on his ungrateful VP.

In Trump’s mind, the worst thing you can be is a “loser.”   It is the word he uses most often to vilify people he dislikes.  Donald – look in the mirror.

SOME QUESTIONS LOOKING FORWARD

1. What will the Democrats in Congress do when they take office with large majorities in January. They have many more seats than the 218 they need for a majority. If this win at least 250 seats, they should easily be above to 235 House Democrats and 51 (out of 54, 55, or 56) Senate Democrats to agree on a unifying legislative package on inflation and affordability as well as ending funding for the war in Iran.

Between now and January, they should laser focus on the legislative package and announce it quickly. Americans want relief from Trump, and from the hardships he’s caused. Democrats  should quickly file their legislative package soon after taking office in January.  The  Democratic House speaker and Senate majority leader can force a roll call vote. They can compel the Republicans to vote for or against this legislative program. Once the Democrats pass it (perhaps with a few Republicans), they should dare Trump to veto it.  If he does, the Democrats should go on the warpath to blame Trump for vetoing bills that would help ease Americans’ pain.  This will help lay the ground for the Democrats in 2028.

They should hold hearings in key swing areas around the county and figure out how to “sell” their package. (Democrats have a lousy track record of getting credit for their own accomplishments).

The only other priority should be holding oversight hearings and investigating Trump’s corruption and grifting, including the Epstein files. It is not worth the time needed to try to impeach Trump.  Americans don’t want another impeachment show. They want Congress to hold Trump and others accountable for their failures to obey the law and his complicity to enrich himself and his billionaire friends.

2. Can the Democrats get their act together to advance a unifying legislative package that should be bold and progressive, not centrist and corporate? One by-product of the Democratic landslide is that there will be more centrist Democrats in Congress. But many of them ran on platforms that included common-sense proposals that are reasonably progressive, including a focus on the oversized influence of the super rich and big corporations.

“Bi-partisanship” is a comforting word, but the Democrats now have a mandate. How will they interpret that mandate? They have a big enough majority in both houses to not worry about losing some corporate Democrats (as Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema did with Biden’s bold legislative package). If the package is popular in their districts (the Dems should quickly invest in a lot of polling), most will vote for it.

What should the Democrats be pushing? Here are just a few suggestions:

• Restore the Child Tax Credit (which the Republicans refused to continue), which reduced child poverty by more than one-third.
• Restoring the Republicans’ cuts to Medicaid and Obamacare 
• Eliminate the Social Security payroll tax cap, so that high-earning workers to pay the 6.2% FICA tax on all of their wage income rather than stopping once their earnings pass an annual limit (currently $184,500). Why should millionaires pay the same FICA tax as nurses, school teachers, and janitors?
• Lower the Medicare eligibility age to 50.
• Reduce the price of more prescription medications, expanding on what Biden accomplished.
• Design a major jobs-creating “green” jobs program to put people to work at good wages.
• Put obstacles in building data centers for AI companies.
• Reduce or eliminate tuition at public universities and community colleges.
• End the war in Iran and expanding funding for the Veterans Administration
• Dramatically expand housing vouchers. Less than one-third of all households eligible for vouchers receive it because there isn’t enough federal funding. Increase funding so that, like food stamps, all families who are eligible can get a voucher to help them pay rent.
• Dramatically reduce the budget for ICE and adopt strict standards for what ICE agents can do.
• Use the savings from cutting the ICE budget to restore the scientific expertise in NIH, the CDC, EPA, OSHA, and other agencies that Trump gutted.
• End Trump's tariffs
• Restore U.S. AID to help people around the world suffering from malnutrition and disease.
• Provide more funds to Ukraine to stop Putin’s imperial war on that nation.
• Pass a progressive wealth tax, like Elizabeth Warren’s Ultra-Millionaire Tax, starting with a 2% annual tax on every dollar of net worth between $50 million and $1 billion, rising to 3% to 6% total annual tax on a net worth above $1 billion, and exempting anyone with a household net worth before $50 million
• Adopt a $20 federal minimum wage. Congress has failed to increase the wage, now stuck at $7.25, since 2009 while prices have skyrocketed.

Once the Democrats announce their legislative agenda, they will have to decide whether, or how far, to compromise with Trump. For example, Trump will oppose a $20 minimum wage, as will every corporate lobby group. If Trump reluctantly agrees to sign the Democrats’ bill if they reduce it to, say $10 an hour (highly unlikely), should the Democrats go along in order to win a victory? (Many states and cities have adopted minimum wages above the federal level, but a higher federal wage will help many Americans who live in states without a higher wage).

In the next two years, Democrats need to demonstrate that they hear the concerns of everyday Americans. When a Democrat wins the presidency, and the Democrats maintain their majority in 2028, they can advance a more comprehensive legislative package dealing with K-12 schools, child care, some versions of Medicare for All and a Green New Deal, and other matters. But they won't get that opportunity if they don't show, in the next two years, that they want to be bold and decisive. Americans don't want to see battles between the different wings of the Democratic Party if it leads to stalemate and no major accomplishments - or at least big ideas.

3. How will Trump behave in the final two years of his presidential term? In his first remarks on the election, posted on TruthSocial, Trump sought to distance himself from the Republicans’ devastating losses. "I wasn't on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!" he wrote.

This, of course, is absurd. Trump told crowds at all this recent rallies vote as if he WAS on the ballot.

But the Democrats won by such a large margin that even Trump acknowledged that they won. Trump also sounded more conciliatory than defiant in an interview with the NY Times, saying that he’ll work with Democrats to pass legislation.

But this may be the calm before the storm. Trump is driven by ego, vindictiveness, racism, bullying, and lust for money and power. He typically can’t keep his cool or swallow his pride, and agree to compromises. He is more likely to go ballistic and continue his efforts to destroy American democracy and use the White House as a subsidiary of his business activities? It will be hard for Trump to call off the Department of Justice from going after the people on his personal enemies list.

Will he continue to encourage organized hate groups and MAGA cult members to take matters into their own violent hands? Will he continue to use ICE storm troopers to invade cities and arrest, detain and deport immigrants, triggering violence? Will he invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 to send active-duty military troops and federalized National Guard units into American cities to restore domestic “law and order?” Will he continue to defy the courts?

Will Republicans in Congress and on the Supreme Court continue to bow to Trump, or has Trump’s ability to intimidate them been so eroded that they will act even slightly less sycophantic? In the midst of the Watergate scandal of the 1970s, top Republicans went to visit president Richard Nixon and told him that he had to resign or be impeached. It is a symbol of how far the Republicans have fallen that we can’t even imagine today’s GOP leaders doing that. But perhaps some of them will put nation over party and have the courage to publicly criticize Trump and ask him to resign.  Trump will see it as a humiliation, but he might also see it as a relief.  The major stumbling block may be that Trump fear that once he leaves the White House, he may be convicted of various crimes and sent to prison. Will the Supreme Court grant him immunity from those crimes, or will Trump pardon himself to stay out of prison. (He could, however, be prosecuted for state crimes).

4. Will the Democrats elect Hakeem Jeffries as House Speaker and Chuck Schumer as Senate majority leader? They are already taking credit for the Democratic landslide, a tactic to win enough votes to remain as party leaders. Jeffries would be the first Black Speaker, but he lacks the charisma required to be the Democrats’ public spokesperson. Schumer is too tied to Wall Street and AIPAC and has the charisma of stale bread. But, fresh off this triumphant election, will the Democrats in Congress want to start their victory lap with a battle over choosing a Speaker and Majority Leader?  And even they are willing, who will step up and seek to replace them?

5. What's the future of AI and data centers? How will widescale opposition to them play out politically?  Several states that flipped from Republican to Democrat (like Ohio) are being inundated by proposals to build data centers? Polls show significant opposition to them by Republicans, Democrats, and independents like. According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, more than half of Americans (54%) now say data centers are mostly bad for the environment, up from 39% in January. Half say they are mostly bad for home energy costs, up from 38%. And 49% say they are mostly bad for people’s quality of life nearby, up from 30%. Just 4% of Americans think data centers have a mostly good impact in each of these areas. Democrats should make an issue of this and propose legislation to stop or slow down their construction.

6. How will the new DSAers in Congress operate?

In the past few years, candidates with ties to Democratic Socialists of America have won a growing number of electoral victories in blue and purple areas, from school boards to mayors of big cities, to Congress, and almost one governor’s race (in Wisconsin). DSA candidates won more races on Tuesday. The number members is likely to continue to grow.

Starting in January, there will be at least nine democratic socialists in the House (the most in history) as well as Bernie Sanders in the Senate. This includes Rashida Tlaib and and Donavan McKenney of Michigan, Manny Rutinel and Melat Kiros from Colorado, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez of New York, Chris Rabb of Pennsylvania, and Angela Gonzales-Torres of Los Angeles.

Will the new DSA-affiliated House members, and DSA's 120,000 members, learn from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s success working with people who don’t pass DSA’s ideological litmus tests. She has been faithful to the cause and the organization, but she’s learned how to operate in the House, and in public, in ways that are both principled and pragmatic.

There are several new members of Congress who are not DSA members but who will be close allies. These include Adam Hamawy, an Army veteran and medical doctor who won his race in New Jersey’s CD-12; Brad Lander of New York, a former DSA member, who was an effective City Council member in NYC; and environmental activist William Lawrence in Michigan, also a former DSAer.

They will join other progressive House members who may not call themselves democratic socialists or pay DSA dues, but who are aligned with DSA on most (but not all) issues. These include Greg Casar of Texas, Analilia Mejia of New Jersey, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Pramila Jayapal of Washington, Summer Lee of Pennsylvania, Mark Pocan of Wisconsin, Jamie Raskin of Maryland, Maxwell Frost of Florida, Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and Delia Ramirez of Illinois. (There are at least 100 Democrats in the House Progressive Caucus, but these are the most left-leaning).

7. What will activist groups learn from this experience? We won't have Trump to kick around much longer. Democrats and their allies need a permanent ground game, not just for elections, but to build leadership and coalitions in-between election cycles. That means that the labor movement, the civil rights and immigrant rights movements, the LBGTQ and women's movements, the environmental justice movement, the tenants rights and community organizing movement, civic groups like Indivisible, and DSA need to work together to build an activist infrastructure that targets races and works on local issues to keep people "in motion." Liberal donors need to invest in this movement-building project over the long haul. The Movement Voter Project is a small version of what's needed. Liberals, progressives, and Democrats are understandably feeling high right now, but moving forward, we need a major investment in building the base that can will elections and give people a sense of their own power.

Peter Dreier is professor of Politics at Occidental College