Election Analysis – What Happens, Why, What Next?
We are all grieving for the fate of our country and the world. We need to take time to deal with those feels, surround ourselves with people with love, and do things that bring us joy - music, cooking, sports, hiking, travel, whatever. We can accept the reality that Trump and the Republicans won the election, and try to understand why, but we need to eventually translate our angry into action - what organizer Ernie Cortes called "cold anger" that is strategic.
Here are my random thoughts about the election, which I'll probably add to over the next few days. There is a lot to take in.
1. The country is almost evenly divided when it comes to party preference. Trump did not win a landslide like FDR in 1936, or Johnson in 1964, or Nixon in 1972, or Reagan in 1980, or Obama in 2008. He won by a small margin in the Electoral College and the popular vote. Even so, public opinion polls show that Americans are NOT divided on most key issues. For example, a vast majority think there's too much wealth and income inequality, that rich people and big corporations should pay more in taxes, that the government should do more to protect the environment and consumers, that labor unions are a good thing, that undocumented immigrants deserve a path toward citizenship, that the government should help limit drug prices, that all Americans are entitled to health insurance, that the federal minimum wage should be at least $15 an hour, that same-sex marriage should be legal, that police should not engage in racial profiling, and so on. But public opinion doesn't get translated into policy without politics, and elections are about politics - mobilizing people to vote around issues they care about.
2. Trump won the popular vote, so the Electoral College - which is always a popular whipping boy and usually well-deserved -- isn't the problem this year. Trump is a unique figure in the history of American politics - a demagogue, the leader of a personality cult, and pathological liar. So it is hard to evaluate this election with other elections, because doing so tends to normalize what should be causes for outrage. Even so, we can evaluate this election to understand how Trump won the White House, and how the Republicans took back the Senate. We don't yet know whether the Republicans will hold onto their House majority.
3. Overall turnout was down this year compared to four years ago. In 2020, 66.4% of eligible voters actually voted. This year, 64.5% of eligible voters cast ballots. This is according to the University of Florida Election Labor, which keeps tabs on this.
4. The Democrats' turnout efforts were inadequate. Many Americans didn't vote. We'll know more later about who the non-voters were, but here are some preliminary factoids. In 2020, Trump got 74.2 million votes. This year he got 72.1 million votes - 2.1 million fewer. In 2020, Biden got 81.2 million votes. This year, Harris got about 67.2 million votes. That's 14 million fewer votes. That means that lots of people who voted for Biden in 2020 didn't even bother to vote this year. Both the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates got fewer votes this year, but the Democratic candidate (Harris) got FAR fewer votes. Some version of this occurred in almost every state.
5. There are many hard truths we have to face if we're to move our country in a better direction. Trump is a fascist, but most Americans are not fascists. Even so, more than half of those who voted, voted for a fascist, mostly over their concerns over the economy, and next most important over immigration. In Missouri, about 58.5% of voters voted for Trump. At the same time, 58% of voters voted for Proposition A, which will hike the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour and guarantee paid sick leave. Trump is against raising the federal minimum wage and against paid sick leave, while Harris is for both of them. But obviously many Missourians voted for Trump AND Proposition A. Similarly, quite a few Americans voted for Trump AND voted for state ballot measures in favor of abortion.
5. Harris was seen as an extension of Biden, who was very unpopular. She could never recover from that. Post-election polls show that the most important issue, by far, was the economy and prices. 39% of voters ranked this as the most important issue. Those for whom that issue was #1 voted for Trump by a large margin 60%, according to an AP exist poll. In the AP post-election poll, 37% of voters thought the economy was "excellent" (7%) or "good" (30%), while 64% of voters thought that the economy was "not so well" (40%) or "poor" (24%). By a margin of 50% to 41%, more Americans think Trump would be better than Harris at handling the economy. This despite the fact the American economy is currently the best in the world and is improving, that wages are going up faster than prices, and that unemployment is at a record low. Lots of polls show that most Americans don't give Biden credit for the improving economy. In fact, many blame him for what they perceive as a "bad" economy. Trump kept repeating that the economy is terrible and media let him get away with his lies. Biden was also the most pro-union president in history, but many union members voted for Trump, even though not a single union endorsed Trump.
6. Immigration ranked #2. 20% of voters said that Immigration was the most important issue. 88% of those voters voted for Trump. Trump's racist stereotyping and scapegoating of immigrants was effective. This was his most fascist demagogic issue and it worked.
7. Many people (including me) predicted that abortion would play a major role in getting women to vote and to vote for Harris and other Democrats in light of the Dobbs decision, made possible by Trump's appointments to the Supreme Court and his opposition to abortion. We still don't have all the facts, but it appears that this didn't happen. Abortion ranked #3 - 11% of voters said it was the most important issue. 85% of them voted for Harris. A majority of white women, who accounted for 39% of all voters, voted for Trump. Non-white women (the AP didn't break it down by specific race) voted overwhelmingly (over 70%) for Harris, but they account for only 14% of all voters.
8. Why did most of the polls underestimate Trump's support. It has do to with the so-called "Bradley effect," named for Tom Bradley, LA's first African American mayor. In 1982 he lost the California gubernatorial race despite having a lead in the polls going into the election. Some voters clearly told pollsters that they were going to vote for Bradley because they didn't want to sound racist. This year, some people who intended to vote for Trump lied to pollsters. They know he's a despicable person and didn't want to say out loud that they were going to vote for him. So they lied. That explains why most polls underestimated Trump's margins.
9. Speaking of bigotry: Harris had a few disadvantages besides being the VP to an unpopular president and having little time to build her own campaign after Biden dropped out in July. Since the 1960s, more and more white voters have voted for Black and Latinx candidates and more male voters have voted for female candidates. As a result, the number of Black, brown, and female elected officials has increased dramatically. That's all good. But we can't discount the reality that Harris' race and gender may have hurt her with quite a few voters. Black and women voters didn't support her at the levels that her campaign expected, and there are still many Americans who won't vote for a Black candidate, or a female candidate, much less at Black female candidate.
10. The turnout problem has much to do with the decline of the labor movement over the past 40 years - from 30% of all workers in the early 1970s, to 20% in the 1990s, to 10% today. Unions used to be the key turnout machine for Democrats. If union membership today was 20% of all workers, Harris would have won, because unions would have put more resources into educating its members about why to vote for the pro-worker candidate, even those members who might be gun owners or evangelical Christians. Typically, turnout by union members is higher than average turnout. A stronger labor movement would have had put more members to volunteer in campaigns and had more money to invest in Democratic campaigns. America's corporate ruling class and its Republican allies spent the past half-century trying to weaken and even destroy the labor movement, and almost succeeded, in part by weakening labor laws and enforcement, in part by engaging in expensive union-busting. It turns out that unions have made a modest comeback in the past few years, but they can't win many workplace victories under current labor laws. Public opinion is solidly in support of unions. Over 70% of Americans support unions, the highest figure since the mid-1960s, when the Gallup Poll began asking that question. But public opinion doesn't win union elections. Fair labor laws and good organizing do. The Democrats should have enacted labor law reform (then called the Employee Free Choice Act, now called the Protect the Right to Organize Act) when they had the chance under Obama, but they didn't. They are paying for that now.
11. Other key organizations within the Democratic coalition - Planned Parenthood, the ACLU, the Sierra Club and other enviro groups, civil rights groups, immigrant rights groups, community organizing groups, LGBTQ groups -- don't have the resources or infrastructure that the labor movement does. If they all worked together, that would be better, but the liberal/progressive coalition is still organizationally fragmented.
12. Anecdotally, my wife and I canvassed for Democrat George Whitesides in a key battleground House race in northern LA County (Palmdale/Lancaster/Santa Carita), against a Republican incumbent, Mike Garcia. Most of the canvassers over those last few weekends were NOT from that district, because there was very little Democratic infrastructure there. We door-knocked homes and apartments of registered Democrats who were low-propensity voters - who had only voted in one or two of the least five election cycles. Most weren't at home or refused to come to the door. We were not their friends, neighbors, or coworkers. Others told me of their similar experiences around the country. That is NOT a recipe for Democratic success. (By the way, Garcia is leading by 51.1% to 49.1% with 69% of the vote counted).
13. Some people are surprised at Trump's victory because the media kept saying that his campaign operation was in disarray and didn't have a real ground game. But Trump DID have a ground game. It's called the white evangelical Christian movement. Those churches and their social networks mobilized their members for Trump and other Republicans. In 2016 and 2020 they accounted for almost half (45%) of Trump's total vote. We'll see how they did this year. It is possible that a significant factor in Trump's increase among Latinos this year was among Hispanic evangelicals and traditional Catholics.
14. There will be lots of post-election diagnoses and many reports about what went wrong (and, in a few cases, right) around polling, framing issues, media coverage, voter outreach, registration and turnout, voter suppression, voter preferences and turnout of specific groups (women, youth, African Americans, Latinos, union members) that weakened the Democratic coalition, etc.
15. There’s lots to discuss about what Democrats, liberals and progressives, should be doing during Trump’s presidency. Massive civil disobedience and protest? General strikes in major cities? Investing in and strengthening an infrastructure of local/state issue-oriented groups to strengthen and expand the organizing base in-between elections? Focus on building movements and winning elections in cities and state legislatures? Lots of lawsuits to stop Trump from pursuing his agenda?
16. Many of us feared that in an extremely tight presidential election that would be determined by a small number of votes in seven battleground states, the presence of Jill Stein and Cornel West on the ballot could take enough "protest" votes away from Harris to hand Trump a victory. This didn't happen. Trump's margin of victory in those states was much larger than the combined votes for Stein and West. Similarly, it doesn't look like Harris lost many votes among young people and liberals upset with her stance on Israel and Palestine. Even most leftist voters who declared themselves to be "uncommitted" probably voted for Harris anyway, knowing that things would be much worse for Palestinians, or the prospects for peace in the Middle East, if Trump won the election. But because Harris got fewer votes than Biden did in 2020, we don't yet know which Biden voters didn't bother to vote this year.
17. The same is likely true about Arab American voters. In the Arab-majority suburb of Dearborn, Harris lost the city to Trump by more than 2,600 votes. Biden beat Trump by more than 17,400 votes in Dearborn. That's more than a 20,000-vote swing that contributed to Trump's triumph in Michigan. Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat, received over 9,600 more votes in Dearborn than Harris. Trump beat Harris in Michigan by a slim margin of 84,029 votes - 49.8% (2,799,713 votes) to 48% (2,715,684). Trump's margin among Arab American voters wasn't enough, on its own, to swing the Michigan electoral votes his way, but it contributed to his victory. More important was the low turnout by Black voters and the shift of some Black voters toward Trump. The same is likely true in Pennsylvania, which has a relatively large Arab American population, but where other factors were more important in Trump's victory.
18. In many ways, the legacy of the COVID pandemic was a factor in this election. It brought the economy to a standstill, first under Trump, then under Biden. Biden's policies helped bring the economy back, but that's now how most voters see it. Instead, they have short memories and somehow blame Biden for higher prices for gas, food, rent, and other necessities. They forget the devastation that Trump's mishandling of the pandemic caused, including many unnecessary deaths due to his lies about vaccines and his administration's failure to quickly address the public health crisis. In early March 2020, weekly claims for unemployment insurance was about 207,000. Two weeks later, it was ten times that figure. By April, claims reached a high of 6,137,000. Having lost their jobs or working few hours, many Americans could not pay their mortgage or the rent. Biden expanded resources for testing and vaccines, but Trump and his MAGA movement opposed masks and even vaccines, so that, ironically, COVID deaths were higher in Republican areas. Through August 2024, the U.S. had 103 million confirmed cases of COVID and 1.2 million deaths. COVID also had a profound impact on increasing social isolation, with people becoming less connected to family, friends, neighbors, and coworkers. That certainly had an impact on voter turnout.
19. What can we expect from a Trump administration? Here are a few predictions:
(a) He will hire more loyalists to run the White House and the agencies, including bringing fellow fascist Elon Musk and anti-science whacko Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into high level posts. He will continue to use the White House as a subsidiary of the Trump family business empire. He will continue to rant and rage like a deranged lunatic, encouraging hate groups like the Proud Boys to engage in violence against immigrants, transgender folks, Blacks, Jews, and others.
(b) He will try to persuade Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas (76 years old) and Samuel Alito (75) to retire so he can appoint younger reactionaries to the Supreme Court.
(c) He will fill other federal judgeships with similar reactionaries drawn from a list put together by the Federalist Society. This only requires Senate approval.
(d) He will begin to deport immigrants, although it is unlikely he can deport the 12 undocumented immigrants and, if he tries, he'll get pushback from major employers who depend on them. Trump's efforts will sow enormous chaos and racism, and could result in violence and certainly violations of basic civil liberties.
(e) If the Republicans take back the House, he will weakening federal labor laws and eviscerating the NLRB to stall/reserve the modest but impressive victories by organized labor.
(f) He will cut Medicaid, food stamps, and housing vouchers.
(g) He will weaken Obamacare to return to allowing insurance companies to deny coverage to those with pre-existing conditions.
(h) He will weaken regulations that protect workers, consumers, and community residents from dangerous health, safety, and environmental practices by business. This means cutting budgets and regulations for EPA, FDA, OSHA, NLRB, FTC, CFPB, HUD, and other regulatory agencies.
(i) He will enact even more regressive tax policies by reducing taxes for the super-rich and big business.
(j) He will cut Pell grants and other financial aid for college and cancel all policies to reduce student debt, most of which is born by working class Americans who attended four year public colleges and universities.
(k) He will reduce funds for public transit and investments in green jobs and green industries
(l) He will allow drug companies to dramatically raise prices for prescription medicine, including reserving Biden's policies, including for drugs like insulin.
(m) He will weaken federal laws that ban employment, housing and other forms of discrimination on the basis of race and gender
(n) He will encourage the Supreme Court to allow states to outlaw same-sex marriage
(o) He will pre-empt states and cities from raising the minimum wage above the federal level ($7.25 since 2009), among other changes.
(p) He will pardon all those who were convicted for the January 6 insurrection.
(q) He will end U.S. aid to Ukraine, guaranteeing Putin a victory
(r) He will visit Israel to show support for Netanyahu
(s) He will engage in all kinds of acts to diminish our democracy and basic rights regarding free speech, assembly, dissent, unions, surveillance, academic freedom, immigration and deportation, separation of church and state, and others. Rick Perlstein wrote an excellent column in American Prospect, entitled "What Will You Do?" about this.
20. If I thought that the Democrats could take back the Senate in 2026, then I’d say that Trump will have to do most of his damage in the first two years of his administration, especially if the Republicans maintain control in the House. But a quick look at the 2026 Senate map seems to give Republicans the advantage. This is my quick-and-dirty analysis, which I’d be happy to be wrong about. The “out” party usually picks up seats in the midterm elections, but the Democrats have a long climb to get to 51 Senate seats in 2026. They’d have to hold onto all their existing seats and flip four to six Republican seats, but it doesn’t look like there are four (much less six) vulnerable Republican seats to flip. If am correct, then Trump will have four years of a Republican Senate.
Current Senate
51 D (includes independents Sinema, Manchin, Sanders, King)
49 R
Republicans flipped at least 4 Senate seats in
Ohio (Brown lost)
PA (Casey lost)
Montana (Tester lost)
West Virginia (Manchin didn’t run for re-elections and was replaced by a Republican)
Republicans could still flip three more Senate seats, but it is too close to call
Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin) – currently winning 49.4% to 48.5%
Michigan (Elise Slotkin) – currently winning 48.6% to 48.3%
Nevada (Jacky Rosen) – currently losing 47.2% to 47.3%
Democrats flipped
None
New Senate
If Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin), Elise Slotkin (Michigan), and Jacky Rosen (Nevada) all win, the Senate will be 53 R, 47 D
If Baldwin and Slotkin hold on to win, but Rosen loses, it is 54 R, 46 D
If Baldwin holds on to win, but Slotkin and Rosen lose, it is 55 R, 45 D
If Baldwin, Slotkin and Rosen all lose, the new Senate is 56 R, 44 D
Under the first, best-case, scenario, the Democrats have to flip 4 Republican Senate seats, and hold onto all their current seats, to regain a majority. Based on my quick look (below), at which Rs and Ds might be vulnerable in 2026, that doesn’t look promising.
2026 Senate Elections
Vulnerable Republicans (% of votes in previous race)
Tillis - NC (48.7%)
Ernst – Iowa (51.8%)
Collins – Maine (51%)
Cornyn - Texas (53.5%) [although Cruz’s win over Allred with 53.2% of the vote makes a Cornyn win seem highly likely)
Vulnerable Democrats (% of votes in previous race)
Ossoff – GA (50.6%)
Smith – Minn. (48.7%)
Hickenlooper – Colorado (53.5%)
Peters – Michigan (49.9%)
Lujan – New Mexico (51.7%)
In the midst of this awful election, there was some GOOD NEWS, which I'll have to write about some other time. Besides some positive votes on state ballot measures around the county, in Los Angeles, Ysabel Jurado - a very progressive tenants rights lawyer -- was elected to the LA City Council. There's plenty of other silver linings from yesterday's elections, but I'll leave it there.
To be continued....