Portside

So it turns out that Donald Trump could not end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. In fact, he could not even arrange a ceasefire in the almost three months since his inauguration. Nor was he ever going to. Trump’s priority was never to achieve peace, it was always to end the war on the best terms for Russia. And that means what the US has been doing is bullying Ukraine into a terrible deal which would give Russia Ukrainian territory, end sanctions on Russia, and provide Ukraine no meaningful security guarantees.

If Trump was going to bring an end to the fighting (an extraordinarily difficult task) it was going to have to be because of a subtle and intelligent application of US power to make both sides believe he has a plan. Alas, he does not and never did. His plan has always been to step away from Ukraine and move closer to Russia.

And his plan seems to be reaching a tipping point which means European states might soon be confronted with an entirely different war in Ukraine, one they should have been preparing for for at least a year, but instead one that they have wilfully pretended would never happen. This is the great crisis that we have been moving almost inevitably towards since Trump returned to the White House.

The crisis would start with the ending of the US attempts to broker a deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, just a few hours ago, claimed that if there was no deal soon, Trump might throw in the towel. His exact quote about a deal was:

“If it’s not possible, if we’re so far apart that this is not going to happen then I think the president is probably at a point where he’s going to say we’re done,”

The repercussions of this could alter the war—in ways Europe is not yet ready to face. Trump saying that the US is “done” does not mean US neutrality in the war. It almost certainly means the US getting back to business with Russia, maybe even ending all sanctions that it can, while at the same time giving no more aid to Ukraine. Even while trying to broker a deal, Trump has been refusing to sell arms to Ukraine.

As this is being written, reports are coming out that part of the “peace” package that Trump is trying to force on Ukraine now involves an end of sanctions on Russia.

Again, this should be no surprise. Trump has been angling to end sanctions on Russia for years. In the middle of the Presidential campaign, he made an explicit pitch to weaken sanctions on Russia. In a September speech he said:

“I want to use sanctions as little as possible….You’re losing Iran, you’re losing Russia. China is out there trying to get their currency to be the dominant currency,”

“There’s so much conflict with all these countries that you’re going to lose” the dominance of the dollar.”

Everything he has done since becoming President has shown how committed he was to this. He has talked repeatedly about restoring business links with Russia, and his personal envoy, Steve Witkoff, has spent hours negotiating with the Russians, partly about getting back to business. Trump is chomping at the bit to end sanctions on Russia.

And remember, Trump deliberately exempted Russia from his tariffs list.

If Trump does end, or even just seriously water down sanctions on Russia—the war could be transformed. Basically Russia would then receive the open or tacit backing of both of the superpowers of the moment—China and the USA. That would be unprecedented, and I think explains why Russia has been so desperate to continue with the war even in the face of their losses. Russia will be backed by the majority of the world’s economic and military might.

And who knows how both the US and China might up their support for Russia. I was planning on writing more about this in my next piece, but if China felt it could flood Russia with military aid and suffer no economic repercussions, that alone could have a massive impact on the war.

Europe and Ukraine will be left alone. European leaders will no longer have the luxury of pretending everything will be alright in the end. They will either have to act with energy and decisiveness to support Ukraine, or we could see the end of a liberal and democratic Europe.

I hope they have not left it too late.

Phillips’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.