Portside

The battle for control of the House will be fought in large part in Republican-leaning districts like Georgia’s Sixth, and a strong Democratic turnout alone probably won’t be enough to win a high-turnout election. The Democrats must face the additional challenge of mobilizing young, nonwhite and especially Black voters. The race suggests that Democrats will probably be disappointed if they hope to increase the Black share of the electorate with traditional mobilization.

A new analysis of the 2016 electorate offers warning signs to Republicans, whose base continues to shrink. (There are red lights flashing Democrats' way, too.)