Portside

Zohran Mamdani’s remarkable campaign for New York mayor has left the Democratic party deeply divided. Moderates and conservatives like James Carville and Chris Cuomo – brother of Mamdani’s reading rival, former governor Andrew Cuomo – have all but denounced the 33-year old stature senator as a far-left lunatic that will doom the party’s chances of rebounding from their crushing defeat by Donald Trump last November.

Moderates are well aware that Mamdani is popular, especially with young voters, but they fear his likely victory will stoke the political ambitions of other democratic socialists in jurisdictions where the electorate tilts more conservative. Sure he might eke out a win in Deep Blue New York City – in fact, polls show him leading all other candidates – but at what cost to Democrat chances in Red-friendly districts in Ohio or North Carolina, they argue. This kind of fear-mongering is built on a series of myths about how the electorate in New York – and indeed, elsewhere –is likely to view candidates like Mamdani. What are these myths?

Most of the electorate will reject a self-proclaimed “democratic socialist”

Nonsense. Avowed socialist Bernie Sanders polled extremely well against Donald Trump in 2016, besting him by 10 points (compared to just 5 points for Hillary Clinton). In fact, polls conducted as far back as 2015 – on the eve of Barack Obama’s departure from office – showed that young voters were becoming quite attracted to the idea of socialism, which they tended to associate with social democratic policies pursued in Scandinavia – unlike older voters, who still thought of socialism in terms of the Soviet Union, China and communism. The polarization was sharp at the extremes of age, but not in the middle. In fact, a near majority of voters in the broad 18-49 year old demographic – about 49% – had a generally positive view of “socialism,” according to polling conducted that year by YouGov.

And that was a full ten years ago, before COVID and the massive economic disarray and job losses of 2020 began taking their toll. Consider the very latest polls from May 2025, including a new You Gov/Cato Institute poll. More than 6 in 10 young voters (62%) now say they embrace “socialism” – a record high – and as older voters have watched their Social Security and Medicare benefits come under attack – their antipathy toward socialism – has also declined. Overall, some 43% of all voters have a favorable view of socialism, up from just 25% back in 2015. This is not polling from New York or California – but from all US voters, including the hard-hit American heartland and the Republican-controlled South.

Mamdani is an Anti-Semite who will turn off Jewish voters.

Mamdani’s opponents are clearly counting on the candidate’s steadfast criticism of Israel and his passionate support for the victims of the genocide in Gaza to drive away Jewish voters. But it’s simply not happening. While the New York city area is home to 1.3 million Jews – second only to Tel Aviv, Israel – many share Mamdani’s concern about Israel policies and the Trump administration’s support for them. The latest poll sponsored by Zenith Research and Public Progress Solutions shows Mamdani leading with 43% of New York’s Jewish voters, followed by 26% for Cuomo and just 15% for Eric Adams. Mamdani’s Jewish support jumps to 67% among Jewish voters in the 18-49 year old age bracket, where support for the Palestinian cause is overwhelming.

Why are younger Jews so supportive? Research conducted by Samuel J. Abrams at the conservative American Enterprise Institute among Jewish college students gives the answer. “My recent research on Jewish college students reveals that many progressive Jewish students are reinterpreting what it means to be Jewish; traditional practices, historical beliefs, and faith-based ideas and traditions are being hollowed out for a more general, humanistic world view. For young, progressive Jews, their identity is now defined less by faith and traditional Jewish practices or solidarity with the state of Israel, but more by universalist ethics, justice, and opposition to oppression—wherever it occurs.”

Abrams is no Mamdani supporter, but he’s warning conservatives that they are failing to comprehend a profound shift in the Jewish electorate. “I find Mamdani’s ideas to be un-American and he has regularly peddled anti-Semitic views making him unfit to be the mayor of New York,” Abrams insists. “Regardless of my views, however, I cannot write off the sentiments and the supporters he is representing.” This is refreshing realism from a conservative opponent that could bode well for Mamdani as he seeks to govern and appease his Jewish supporters and critics alike.

Mamdani won’t attract African-American voters, who are critical to prevailing in national and local elections.

Cuomo did win a majority of the African-American vote during the primary – the one minority group that swung sharply his way. Cuomo won more than half of the votes in majority-Black precincts, while Mamdani received about 34 percent. In those areas with more than 70 percent Black residents, Cuomo did even better, in fact. Black voters constitute about a quarter of all New York City voters, according to a June 2025 New York Times survey. Winning a sizable share of the Black vote can make a big difference, and with more candidates in the general election race, Mamdani may have some work to do.

But the Black vote in New York, like elsewhere, is no monolith. Here again, age is likely to be a big factor. According to one primary exit poll, about 70% of Black voters under 50 voted for Mamdani citywide. Another poll places young Black support for Mamdani lower – but still above 50%. Young Black voters do not simply fall in line with the traditional Black political leadership, which is closely aligned with the Democratic party establishment. Black voters also include US-born children of Black immigrants from other parts of the world – the Caribbean and Africa – who are politically independent and looking for change. Some young Black voters are tilting toward Trump and the GOP further dividing the vote among the top candidates.

If Mamdani can continue to increase young Black voter turnout, he may not need the older ones. And his surge of support among other minority constituencies – including middle-class Asian Americans as well as Hispanics – could well prove more decisive at the ballot box.

Mamdani is soft on crime and illegal immigration and hostile to law enforcement

Critics also believe that Mamdani’s past support for “defunding the police” in the wake of highly-publicized police brutality incidents like the George Floyd killing in 2020 could cost him politically. But will it, in fact? Mayor Adams and Republican Curtis Sliwa – both big boosters of law enforcement – are hoping to stigmatize Mamdani as a “cop-hater” who will make it harder to keep the city streets safe from dangerous criminals, including some illegal immigrants. Adams and Sliwa do enjoy much stronger support from the city’s public safety establishment – the NYPD and NYFD – but the allegiance of New York’s nearly 50,000 uniformed police officers and firefighters and their families is still up for grabs.

General voters, meanwhile, appear to bear no grudge toward Mamdani for whatever past statements he might have made about law enforcement. In fact, crime does not appear to be a top issue in New York City. A recent poll by Emerson College asked voters to rank their top concerns. Housing affordability, Mamdani’s core issue, ranked first, followed by the economy, including jobs, inflation and taxes. Crime? It ranked a distant third.

Violent crime in NYC has gone down substantially in recent years, something Mayor Adams can take credit for, but which, paradoxically, also serves to take the issue off the table, benefitting Mamdani. At the same time, new revelations of high-level corruption within the NYPD in which Adams is now implicated, have tarnished the overall reputation of law enforcement, further reducing whatever advantage the mayor might try to claim on this issue.

As for immigration, it’s proven to be a potent issue in New York State, favoring the GOP, just as it does nationwide, but not in New York City, which is filled with immigrants from 150 different countries. A whopping 38% of all New Yorkers are foreign-born – about 3 million residents overall – and there is still broad support among residents for New York’s status as a “sanctuary city.” While there’s also growing support for enhanced immigration enforcement, especially in conservative boroughs like Staten Island, the fact that Trump’s ICE has moved so aggressively to deport immigrants, including those with legal status, jeopardizing basic civil rights, has produced enough of a political backlash to insulate Mamdani from any criticism for publicly criticizing ICE and defending lax enforcement.

It’s also critical to note that thanks to a proposed 2021 law, which now faces a legal challenge, even non-citizen immigrants – about 1.2 million total – are eligible to vote in New York city elections. The outcome of this court case could be another factor favoring Mandani in November. The very fact that such a law is under consideration is a clear indication of how supportive New Yorkers overall remain of the city’s burgeoning immigrant population.

Conclusion

Mamdani has an extraordinary opportunity to capture the Mayor’s office in November. Much of what critics are saying would seem to limit his political appeal with “mainstream” city voters, but the results of the primary election – general election polling ever since – strongly suggest otherwise. Mamdani enjoys several major advantages.

His two leading opponents are both heavily tarnished by scandal, reducing whatever advantage they might otherwise enjoy as tried-and-true leaders with demonstrated track records. Mamdani is a fresh face and a political neophyte – but that’s not hurting him, it’s helping, especially with so many voters of the same generation or younger that increasingly dominate the electorate. New Yorkers want change, and Mamdani is the candidate of change. This is a “change” election.

Mamdani is focusing his campaign on the kitchen table issue that matters most to New Yorkers – affordability. That includes the affordability of housing and food, the items vital to basic survival. His declared solutions – a rent “freeze” and the establishment of government-run grocery stores – are easy to attack but they demonstrate that he is willing to take forceful action to limit the damage caused by an unbridled free market. Will he be forced to compromise if he wins? Undoubtedly, but these issues play extremely well with voters during a campaign, especially when his opponents have offered no policies of their own to address the same concerns.

Mamdani’s command of social media tactics, including the use of short videos in multiple languages geared to distinct ethnic Asian and Muslim communities has provided an outreach and messaging advantage unmatched by Cuomo or Adams. GOP candidate Curtis Sliwa has recently marveled at Mamdani’s communications skills, noting that only an all-out grassroots effort by his rivals is likely to blunt his march toward victory. Sliwa, as the long-time head of the Guardian Angels, an informal police auxiliary force, enjoys street “cred” with some New Yorkers of various ethnicities, but, at 71, is probably too “old school” to compete with Mamdani in the absence of a more well-organized and better funded campaign apparatus.

It’s also worth noting that New York’s powerful economic and political elites are not unified in their opposition to Mamdani. Mamdani, rather brilliantly, has reached out proactively to business groups to hear and respond to their concerns, if only to deflect their ability to coalesce against him. Several major corporate leaders – like Jewish leaders – have spoken out publicly against Mamdani but they are keenly aware that their chances of defeating him are declining rapidly. Early efforts to coalesce a major fundraising effort to back Cuomo or Adams have already foundered, in part because neither man is willing to bow out in favor of the other. Sliwa has name recognition but no elective experience, and is unlikely to emerge as a dark horse alternative.

The upshot? Far from threatening Democrats’ political chances in the future, Mamdani’s campaign should be viewed as a powerful catalyst for debate over how the party can adapt itself to local opportunities and get back in the game against Trump and the GOP. There are some unique elements to the New York race that offer unusually favorable terrain for a rogue democratic socialist – who literally emerged out of nowhere – to capture the political leadership of the world’s financial capital. It’s a diehard blue city in a decidedly Blue state; the established Democratic leadership is heavily tarnished; and young voters and politically aware immigrants have emerged as a cutting-edge demographic and electoral force. But some of these same elements are present in other jurisdictions, and Mamdani’s campaign success is pregnant with lessons for Democrats elsewhere. Above all, by focusing on bread-and-butter affordability issues – and downplaying if not ignoring culture war issues – both of which proved to be the Achilles Heel of the Biden/Harris campaign, Mamdani has demonstrated that Democrats can tap into deep discontent with the status quo and with the policies of both major parties. Technically a Democrat, Mamdani is downplaying his own party affiliation and presenting himself as a vibrant force for change who can meet voters where they are, and who can listen without lecturing.

Make no mistake, a Mamdani victory in November is no slam dunk. There are some troubling warning signs in recent polling that suggest that Mamdani is nowhere near capturing 50% of the NYC electorate. If he expects to prevail, in the face of a massive billionaire-funded propaganda offensive after Labor Day, he has his work cut out for him. And even if he does win, that will just be the beginning. Mamdani will need to avoid the crippling governing mistakes that other recent grassroots change candidates – like Brandon Johnson in Chicago – have committed once they assumed office. The goodwill and wait-and-see attitude that greets such candidates at the outset can quickly dissipate as the high expectations from supporters and opponents alike clash with the need for coalition building with diverse city stakeholders. Mamdani, post-victory, will need to “step up” to the next level and be willing to disappoint as well as inspire. His unusual willingness to listen and learn could prove to be his greatest leadership asset. It could demonstrate that progressives at the local level can actually do the hard work of governing where stodgy and corrupt establishment figures, for all their vaunted experience, have failed.

Stewart Lawrence is a long-time Washington, DC-based policy consultant.  He can be reached at stewartlawrence811147@gmail.com.