The Abrams campaign expected voter suppression, had organizations in place to combat it and, at least mathematically, has a path to victory that assumes thousands of voters might be purged and not find out until Election Day.
The battle for control of the House will be fought in large part in Republican-leaning districts like Georgia’s Sixth, and a strong Democratic turnout alone probably won’t be enough to win a high-turnout election. The Democrats must face the additional challenge of mobilizing young, nonwhite and especially Black voters. The race suggests that Democrats will probably be disappointed if they hope to increase the Black share of the electorate with traditional mobilization.
Black turnout declined dramatically; white turnout increased noticeably; and Latino and Asian American turnout went up even more. In the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, those shifts were especially strong. How strong? Without those shifts in turnout from various racial and ethnic groups, these pivotal states might have gone not to Trump but to Clinton — giving Clinton an electoral college victory.
The confidential memo from a former pollster for President Obama contained a blunt warning for Democrats. Written this month with an eye toward Election Day, it predicted “crushing Democratic losses across the country” if the party did not do more to get black voters to the polls.
Spread the word