The current crisis is not simply the story of a brave opposition and a brutal Ortega. It is a long-simmering conflict among different groups that has been carefully manipulated to put Nicaragua firmly and securely back under U.S. hegemony.
The pattern is similar to events in Libya, Syria and Venezuela, where extreme right-wing political minorities conspired with foreign elites to overthrow the national status quo.
It is difficult to say how much López Obrador could, or would, do if elected, given the forces arrayed against him, both at home and from the north. But if there is a reform candidate and party in the race, it is López Obrador and his Morena party.
Obama's plan to bomb Syria with cruise missiles will do nothing to hasten the end of the conflict. Instead, it will likely prolong it. The US couldn't end the Iraqi civil war despite having over 100,000 boots on the ground. It is highly unlikely that Washington can end this one from 30,000 feet. The "limited" Tomahawk Cruise missile strikes with "no boots on the ground" are quickly expanding to "a broader strategy" to arm and strengthen opposition rebels.
The deepening violence of the Syrian civil war is also in some measure a consequence of Libya: Qaddafi's disbanded army and unguarded weapons moved southward in Africa, but they also moved eastward to Asia. The state terror of the most "surgical" air war leaves in its wake many thousands of stateless terrorists.
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