Portside

With several federal agencies gutted and the basic structure of American government being trashed in favor of centralized authoritarian power, I can see how pointing to the price of eggs can sound mismatched for the political moment. Plenty of progressives have shaken their heads at Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries becoming egg market analysts at a time when the strings holding up democracy are being cut.

But you go to war with the constituency you have. The economy and inflation specifically topped voter concerns in 2024. More broadly, people have become disillusioned by consistently changing political leadership and getting few tangible results in their daily lives. My colleague Bob Kuttner has lamented how “popular support for constitutional democracy [has become] contingent, instrumental, transactional,” but he notes this is a by-product of voters not getting much for their votes for the past 40-plus years. Today, they’ve turned to whatever strongman promises them something different in a desperate search for an answer. If disabusing them of that delusion manifests in the price of eggs, so be it.

This effort will only be successful, however, if the connections are made to Donald Trump’s policies, and, really, his neglect of his own voters’ concerns. When presidents are seen as unfocused on public concerns, they lose support. That will lead people to pay attention to what is consuming all the administration’s time, like searching for “DEI” in government documents, taking over the Kennedy Center, or threatening to blow up the economy by accident.

The public has caught on to the effects of Trump’s distractions, ahead of the politicians, as usual. The University of Michigan’s consumer survey for February is at its lowest overall reading since last summer, and inflation expectations in particular jumped a full point to 4.3 percent, the highest reading in over a year. Other surveys of consumer sentiment have also captured this pessimism from the public; more Americans now believe the stock market will fall than at any time since November 2023.

You can see why Americans would feel gloomy, with the talk of trade wars, market turbulence, and yes, those signs in their grocery stores limiting egg purchases to one dozen. Worse yet, future expectations of inflation can be self-fulfilling; producers often set their prices based on what they estimate the market to bear; and if people are expecting to pay more, that factors into their analysis. Expectations can also help determine future wages, which can set in motion a wage-price spiral.

Per statistics released this week, inflation increased to 3 percent in January for the first time since last June, and producer prices were elevated as well. Some of that is because of the 15 percent jump in egg prices in a month. The popular theory would attribute that to avian flu outbreaks and the mass culling of egg-laying hens. But there are a couple of things to say about that, neither of which reflect well on the Trump administration.

Even if you believe that this is purely a supply-driven phenomenon, the fact that the administration is hacking away at science and forcing the people tasked with responding to avian flu out of the government is a bad sign, especially as avian flu mutations have begun to skip to cows. Ignoring a growing outbreak is a familiar position for Trump, and like the pandemic, this is likely to spark higher prices. In a world with routine climate disasters, geopolitical unrest, and pathogens, we’re going to have plenty of supply shocks to stay on top of, which isn’t really on the mind of our president and his top officials.

But there is a compelling theory that egg producers, which are quite concentrated, are taking advantage of inflation expectations to jack up prices, despite their actually having plenty of capacity. Farm Action has asked the Federal Trade Commission for an investigation into how a lack of competition is leading to rising egg prices, noting that the egg-laying flock was only 5 percent smaller in 2024 than it was in 2021, even as prices have jumped 12-fold during that time. The drop in flocks has not been rebuilt with the same speed as it was after prior flu outbreaks, either. And entry into the market is a higher barrier, with gatekeepers controlling the supply of the hens.

There’s little difference, however, between Trump neglecting a supply chain problem and neglecting a competition problem. When pressed in her confirmation hearing on how to deal with egg producer consolidation, his nominee for the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division, Gail Slater, immediately cited the supply shock and made vague noises toward a meaningless Trump executive order to look into price reductions. “I want you to focus on the industry, not on the memorandum,” replied Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT).

Moreover, the kinds of things Trump touted on the campaign trail to fight inflation aren’t working. The big one was that he would drill, baby, drill, and lower costs through abundant energy. But the energy producers aren’t playing along: They do not want to increase production and thereby degrade their prices. Some of the high-profile actions he is taking, like threatening tariffs, are only setting inflation expectations higher.

Others show his disinterest in the issue altogether. “Trump Tempers Tone on Slaying Inflation” is not a headline that will age well. When you’ve boasted for years that you alone can fix everything wrong with America on day one, and then once you get in office you backpedal and say that things take time, people may well get the feeling they’ve been cheated.

On top of this, Trump is firing workers wholesale, and pursuing policies with negative knock-on effects for the economy. Ford has talked about layoffs if Trump withdraws support for the electric-vehicle sector. Chevron is planning to slash up to 20 percent of its global workforce, and the retail apocalypse continues with craft store Joann closing 500 locations.

Liberals are wondering what can possibly slow down this reign of terror by the Trump-Musk faction. Some ask Democrats to fight harder, some hope the courts or another deus ex machina will stop him. But the public mood can also check the presidency. And while Trump’s still in his honeymoon period—with a historically low approval rating compared to other early presidencies—it won’t last forever.

The time will come when people, fed up with a weaker economy and higher prices, start to wonder why this unelected billionaire they don’t like has all this authority, and what a new name for the Gulf of Mexico is doing for their lives, and maybe even why the president is seizing Congress’s spending power. Keep watching that consumer sentiment line as it plunges down, at the same pace as the emperor’s clothes start to fall to the wayside.

David Dayen is the Prospect’s executive editor. His work has appeared in The Intercept, The New Republic, HuffPost, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and more. His most recent book is ‘Monopolized: Life in the Age of Corporate Power.’

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