Portside

New Transatlantic Rift

The election of Donald Trump has opened up a new rift between the United States and the European Union. The angry exchanges between Zelenskyy and Trump in the Oval Office and the US’s suspension of military aid to Ukraine days later, underlined the extent to which US strategy has changed. European politicians have lined up to condemn this shift and declare their continued support for Ukraine. Yet despite their displays of defiance and bravado, by pledging to hike their military spending, European governments are doing exactly what the US President demands from them.

The Failure of Biden’s Strategy

The strategy of the former President Joe Biden was to financially and militarily back Ukraine, whilst placing sanctions and tariffs on Russia, in the hope that this would bring the Putin administration to its knees. This strategy has failed and with Russia unable to inflict a quick defeat on Ukraine the war has dragged into its fourth year, causing huge human and material losses and the displacement of millions of people.

Trump’s Policy Shift and Its Consequences

The decision of Trump to pull US support for Ukraine, represents a fundamental change in policy. Rather than continue to pour resources into the war in Ukraine, these will now be diverted towards other goals, most importantly the US’s attempt to ‘contain’ China. This does not signify a turn towards pacifism or isolationism in the US, but rather a change in priorities. Connected to this is the expectation in Washington that European NATO countries will now step up to the plate and significantly increase their military spending. In their opinion, European nations have had it too easy: relying on the military backing of the USA, whilst funding their relatively well developed welfare states. This has long been the position of the USA, with President Barack Obama urging European governments a decade ago to increase its defence spending and claiming that they had become ‘complacent’. The new US Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, has laid this out in clear terms, announcing the establishment of ‘a division of labour that maximizes our comparative advantages in Europe and Pacific respectively’. The USA of course will remain the dominant partner in this arrangement.

Europe’s Militaristic Response

European politicians are responding with typical grandeur and delusion. Its leaders (from Macron to Starmer and von der Leyen to Tusk) are making firm statements against the actions of Trump and in solidarity with Ukraine. Politicians who have been steeped in the certainties of the Transatlantic alliance, now find themselves caught between shaking and biting the hand that feeds them. France and the United Kindgodm  have tried to act alone, even announcig they may send some troops to Ukraine. As the European NATO armies are far too weak to provide such support, governments are now pushing for a massive increase in military spending.

Already, between 2021 and 2024, EU member states’ total defence expenditure, rose by more than 30%, reaching almost 2% of GDP. Defence investments have grown at an exceptional rate, increasing by 17% in 2023 alone. The largest increase in military spending has taken place in Poland, with defence expenditures equalling around 4.7% of GDP this year.  Trump has lavished praise on Poland for its high military spending, with the Polish government in turn supporting Trump’s call for European NATO countries to spend at least 5% of their GDP on the military.

Other European countries are obligingly following suit. The UK government has announced its single biggest increase in defence spending since the Cold War, whilst simultaneously introducing a new round of welfare cuts. The French President Emmanuel Macron has (completely unrealistically) suggested that France may have to raise its military spending from 2.1% to 5% of GDP. The German Chancellor elect, Friedrich Merz, has agreed with the Christian Democrat’s likely coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party, to  inject hundreds of billions of euros of extra funds into the country’s military and exempt defence spending above 1% of  GDP from the debt brake rules.  In order to circumvent the uncomfortable problem of democratic accountability, Mertz will attempt to rush this through the present parliament before the new government is formed, as it would unlikely achieve the required two-thirds majority in the incoming parliament. Meanwhile, the European Commission is freeing up around €840 billion in defence spending over the next four years. This will include providing €150 billion in loans to member states to build up pan-European capacities and activating a fiscal escape clause to let countries spend more on defence. Austerity, it seems, only applies to social or environmental spending, with the coffers always open for war.

The Economic and Political Impact of Militarisation

By following Trump’s dictates, European leaders are heralding a period of unprecedented military expansion. Nevertheless, Europe will still be in no position to support Ukraine in a war against Russia without the support of the USA. France and the UK have already divided over the details of their ‘peace proposal’, knowing that without US backing it remains worthless. Rather than help end the suffering in Ukraine (where a majority now support peace negotiations) the rise in militarism in Europe will push the continent further towards war whilst starving governments of resources for social and environmental spending. Militarism goes hand in hand with austerity. It will also mean huge guaranteed profits for those producing the means of destruction, with the stocks of European military corporations soaring in anticipation of the enlarged defence budgets.

The Far-Right’s Rising Influence and the Left’s Dilemma

Whilst some on the left and centre of politics believe that they can ride this militaristic wave, the beneficiaries will be the far-right. They will capitalise on the left’s increasing inability to offer answers to the deep capitalist crisis we are living through and then take advantage of the militaristic Europe that they will inherit. Despite divisions on the far-right over the Ukraine war, the European far-right agree on the need to build their armies and are finding ground with the centre-right around increasing military spending. The left must consider how Europe can survive in a new multi-polar world. This involves recognising the situation we are in today, and putting forward proposals for a realistic peace agreement in Ukraine, that best protects the country’s integrity, assets and living standards. It means seeking a new security agreement in Europe, rather than continuous militarisation that could lead to a catastrophic war on the continent and a possible nuclear conflict. This would require Europe acting independently and not cowing to the demands of Trump or whoever occupies the White House.

Gavin Rae is a sociologist living and working in Poland. He has written extensively on Polish politics, society and economy and on issues relating to Central and Eastern Europe. He has had two books published: Poland’s Return to Capitalism. From the Socialist Bloc to the European Union and Privatising Capital. The Commodification of Poland’s Welfare State. He is a founding member of the think-tank Naprzód (Forward), which is an observer organisation in transform! europe.

transform! europe is a network of 38 European organisations from 22 countries, active in the field of political education and critical scientific analysis, and is the recognised political foundation corresponding to the Party of the European Left (EL). This cooperative project of independent non-profit organisations, institutes, foundations, and individuals intends to use its work in contributing to peaceful relations among peoples and a transformation of the present world.