As many of us wake to our much needed morning coffee, a recent study finds that over half of all wild coffee species worldwide are in danger of going extinct.
The study, published in Science Advances, found that 60% of wild coffee species are under threat of extinction. This includes the wild species of Arabica, the most popular cultivated coffee species accounting for 60% of global production.
The majority of the wild coffee species globally are found in Africa and Madagascar, where deforestation, human encroachment and disease is increasingly killing wild coffee plants. While the wildly popular coffee species are mass cultivated around the world, the potential extinction for coffee species leads to real problems on the future of the coffee business.
The two primary coffee species we drink around the world are Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora. However, Arabica coffee is difficult to cultivate and requires specific conditions to thrive. The need for shade and a certain cooler temperature range means the "mountain coffee" is susceptible to slight changes in the local climate.
Closeup shot of coffee beans being roasted. Getty
Extinction of the wild species of Arabica could lead to numerous issues in the decades to come. Namely, the species would be needed to help breed new disease and climate resistant strains. This could cause crop yields to go down in the long term and could hamper the coffee industry's ability to provide new and better-tasting coffee.
Ethiopia could be especially hit by the extinction of coffee species. While Ethiopia accounts for only 3% of the global coffee production, the country relies on coffee for 60% of its export income. In addition, the coffee industry in Ethiopia supports 15 million people.
Most experts agree that the future of coffee is significantly at risk due to climate change. It is estimated that 50% of the land used to grow coffee will not be farmable by the year 2100.
The total number of coffee species threatened with extinction by area. Science Advances
What does this mean for the coffee you drink daily? As temperatures warm, pests and disease will invade coffee farms. As over 80% of coffee growers are poor farmers in less developed countries, they will be faced with decreasing crop yield or increased pesticides. Ultimately, the quality and production of coffee will suffer.
While plant species around the world will have to cope with warming temperatures and a changing climate, coffee is especially vulnerable to these changes. A change in just a couple of degrees on average reduces the quality of Arabica coffee and may require either growing in different locations or a transition to another type of coffee species.
What's clear is that the coffee industry, with an economic impact of over $200 billion in the United States alone, will face significant challenges in the future. Coffee drinkers may be faced with higher coffee prices and poorer tasting coffee as climate change continues to strain this vulnerable crop.
Trevor Nace: I am a geologist passionate about sharing Earth's intricacies with you. I received my PhD from Duke University where I studied the geology and climate of the Amazon. I am the founder of Science Trends, a leading source of science news and analysis on everything from climate change to cancer research. Let's connect @trevornace
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