Portside

With the decision in the early hours of Tuesday to resume the war in Gaza, Israel's march of folly continues. This is yet another Israeli violation of the agreement with Hamas, which began with its refusal to open negotiations as required on the two stages to immediately follow from the initial truce, and to establish a permanent cease-fire.

But beyond the legal and formal aspect, and the important principle that agreements must be honored – even if they are signed with a notorious terrorist organization – what will the massive aerial assault and the elimination of a few more low-ranking Hamas leaders achieve?

As expected, on Wednesday, following the massive airstrikes, Israeli tanks rolled into Gaza, cutting the Strip in two, while motorized infantry brigades prepare for further operations.

Renewing the war will certainly not bring the hostages home. On the contrary, it endangers the 22 who, according to Israeli intelligence assessments, are still alive, and will further complicate the return of the 37 bodies held in Gaza.

After about 16 months of fighting, there is a sense of déjà vu and more of the same: more assassinations, but this time of junior Hamas and Islamic Jihad commanders, since most of the senior figures have already been eliminated. The assassination operations, which Israeli intelligence services and the Israel Defense Forces have become so enamored of and regard as an end in themselves, are primarily directed against the civilian leadership – on the assumption that this will hasten the downfall of Hamas' rule.
 

Following Hamas' invasion on October 7, 2023 – accompanied by massacres, rapes and atrocities – Israel had no choice but to go to war. The country united as one, seeing it as a battle for survival. Hundreds of thousands of reservists, many of them members of the protest movement against the government's regime change efforts, were mobilized and went to fight.

However, as the war dragged on and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused to discuss "the day after" or address what alternative governance should replace Hamas in Gaza, the war became unnecessary and resulted in the needless deaths of at least 150 soldiers.

In the current round, it is difficult to find even a shred of justification for the decision to renew the war. From any perspective, this is a war of choice. This is not a war for survival. It is a political war, made possible by the blind support of U.S. President Donald Trump for Israel and Netanyahu.

Once again, Netanyahu's demagogic and false justification for launching the war is that Hamas refused to release the hostages and, thus, to inflict on it a final blow.

Its hidden objectives, though, are to facilitate the return of Itamar Ben-Gvir and his radical Jewish supremacy faction to the governing coalition. Also, under the cover of war, to continue the accelerated legislative push aimed at once again weakening Israel's traditional democratic institutions and its gatekeepers.

The fighting is also intended to elevate the image of the new IDF chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, as a "war commander," an aggressive general – as demanded by the minister who appointed him, Israel Katz, and other right-wing ministers.

This conduct indirectly diminishes the stature of his predecessor, Lt. Gen. Herzl Halevi, who resigned early this month. However, the reality was that under Halevi's command, the IDF fought – at least in the first weeks – a war of vengeance, causing the deaths of thousands of innocent Gazans and the deliberate destruction of residential buildings and civilian infrastructure.

Upon taking office, Zamir stated that to execute the IDF's war plan, he would need to mobilize five divisions. Most of these will have to come from reserve forces. It will be interesting to see whether the response this time will be as high, or whether the recent trend of "white desertion" – reservists finding excuses not to report – will continue.

Once again, like immediately after October 7, no one at the political level is setting a clear strategic goal for the military operation: What exactly do they seek to achieve beyond the hollow slogan of toppling Hamas? Netanyahu and his government are refusing to explain who they envision governing Gaza afterward.

If a large-scale ground invasion evolves, there may still be an even more covert objective: to trigger a chain reaction. To inflict such massive destruction on Gaza that it ultimately leads to ethnic cleansing or voluntary transfer. In that scenario, hundreds of thousands of its residents will no longer be able to live on the land, not even in tent camps or makeshift shelters. They will disregard warnings and rush toward the Egyptian border and into Sinai.

If, heaven forbid, someone in Israel conceived such a monstrous idea, it could align perfectly with Trump's plan to transfer 2.2 million Gazans to Egypt and Jordan, to make room for "the Gaza Riviera."

Since the first week after October 7, Netanyahu has intended – and has never concealed it – to wage as long a war as possible; a perpetual war designed to create an ongoing state of emergency in the country. He quickly realized that the public had grown weary of the struggle to bring the hostages home, making it possible to abandon them without him having to pay a political or personal price.

Netanyahu believed – and so far he has been proven right – that the longer the war drags on, and now with its renewal, the greater his chances of remaining in power. This is for the simple reason that most Israelis accept the notion of "don't rock the boat when we're in the middle of a storm."

The protest movements, and of course the hostage families, have made it clear that they will not end their struggle. Already on Tuesday and Wednesday, tens of thousands of protesters gathered in the streets of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and other parts of the country. If their protest is supplemented by reservists in sufficient numbers refusing to fight this unnecessary and foolish war, it can end it quickly and be cut short.

[Yossi Melman is an Israeli writer and journalist. He was an intelligence and strategic affairs correspondent for the Haaretz newspaper, and in 2013 he joined The Jerusalem Post and its Hebrew sister paper Maariv in a similar, more analytical role covering also military issues. In 2019 he returned to Haaretz. He is the co-author of  co-author of “Spies Against Armageddon”]